Richard Heinberg, 21st June 2004
http://www.postcarbon.org/subpage.php?page=resources&sub=other

Biosphere destruction due to human activities threatens life on the planet, human and otherwise. The problem is systemic: business as usual presages catastrophic climate change, extreme species extinction, fishery depletion, untenable body burdens of toxics, not to mention largely unhealthy disconnected lives along the way. Human civilization is egregiously far from a steady state and is (literally) driving in the wrong direction. There are no easy solutions.

The imminent peaking of global oil production and the fact that natural gas production has already peaked in North America could be the catalyst for positive transformation of industrial society. It could also be a recipe for disaster. Essential systems that form the foundation of industrial civilization depend on unfettered access to cheap oil and natural gas. As supply begins to drop and is no longer able to meet demand, less work will be done - which means less materialist economic activity. Alternative energies, conservation, and new energy carriers such as hydrogen will undoubtedly play a role in future energy systems, yet collectively they will not be enough to preserve industrial society as we know it. The possibility for largely positives outcomes demands significant preparation, action, and enduring behavior change.

Without unprecedented preparation and cooperation, however, oil and natural gas depletion will precipitate massive disruptions to essential systems such as food, energy, transportation, security and health care, and almost certainly, a major decrease in the earth's carrying capacity. If mainstream awareness of energy peak occurs during a crisis, we will find ourselves well along the amoral path of endless war for control of dwindling resources, black hydrogen fueled by coal and a reemerging nuclear industry, further restrictions on citizen and human rights, and increasing concentration of wealth through globalization and the money system. During a period of draconian governance in the midst of a permanent energy crisis, all of the gains garnered by environmental and social justice groups in the past 50 years are subject to roll back at best. At worst, recent history is full of examples of what happens when humans with powerful weapons get desperate - they reach for demagogues, Fascism and war.

Though no panacea exists for dealing with the peaking of energy supply, clearly Global Relocalization is a building block; other important parts of the foundation are peace, equitable distribution of a portion of Earth's bounty, and social justice. Relocalization is the process by which communities localize their economies and essential systems, such as food and energy production, water, money, culture, governance, media, and ownership. This process will require that we rebuild our cities to severely reduce transport needs and support localization of essential systems - ecological city design provides as framework for this transformation. To effectively address energy scarcity and curtail biosphere destruction, relocalization must occur globally and with some degree of integration. Essentially human civilization needs to prepare itself to do less materially with much less energy and fewer natural resources, with the ultimate goal living within what is left of a reasonable carrying capacity, however reduced that may be. Any other approach can be considered a form of assisted suicide - with nature doing the assisting.

It is urgent that localization begin now. Yet how many times have we heard and ignored such urgent calls? Everything still seems to be going alright though. At least for those in control of the economy and the media. But energy peak will change that, even before climate change, which is tending to affect higher latitudes first. Energy peak will affect the heaviest energy users the most. At first they will use their control of the money system to stave off disaster, but as Britain will soon demonstrate, that will not last long. If or when the US suffers a severe enough dollar crisis, it will find itself catastrophically exposed as the world's largest energy importer. It will be completely vulnerable to the desires of the energy exporters, all of whom will have good reason to bring the reign of the American Empire to a swift end. The American military have presumably understood this. They may not be willing to stand by as they are emasculated by energy and economic constrictions. Both those living inside and outside should realise that if global oil peak happens within two years as now scheduled by a growing number of energy analysts, then they must start taking measures to rebuild their own communities now. This is a quite different kind of urgency from the usual calls to save the planet, or the koalas, or the Yangtze, all of whom are in deep trouble, but none of whom directly affects most of us in the insulated, industrial world.

Another reason for urgency is that the amongst the dominant forms of globalization, the trend towards fewer family farms and the continuing loss of infrastructure, knowledge and wisdom about locally sustainable living gathers pace almost with each passing day. Thanks to this, there are ever fewer working examples and models that can be applied to a given locale. To fill the void, communities must begin localization experiments to discover out what works and what does not in a given locale. This knowledge must be gained before the crisis - if experiments don't work now, that can be counted as useful information. If they fail in conditions of crisis, people are likely to suffer grievously. It has happened before, not just in the last one hundred years, but in the last ten. To save precious time and resources, communities will need to share experiments, outcomes, and lessons learned.

Communities will also need to integrate in appropriate ways the experience and knowledge developed by existing organizations and individuals working on localization on both the policy and community levels, including science that supports localization efforts, and the practices of those indigenous peoples that have not yet been wiped out by empire and its latest incarnation, globalization.

We are seeking like-minded organizations, volunteers, and activists to create a coalition to support community relocalization projects and experiments, as well as online database access and community tools that can help streamline the relocalization process. We are also organizing conferences and creating a speakers bureau with energy, biosphere, and localization experts to help spread the word.

http://www.postcarbon.org/index.php?page=relocalization

Relocalization Platform

Sound municipal governance for the transition into the Post Carbon Age requires:

*   Nimble government that rapidly reconfigures for energy scarcity

*   Active support for relocalization, worker owned cooperatives, locally owned businesses, and ecological city design

*   Innovative municipal tools to affect land and energy use such as zoning ordinances, transfer development rights, tenancy agreements, and community benefit agreements

*   A contingency plan (or "Plan B") that addresses how essential systems will work with less energy

*   Pressure on national leaders for support of local efforts, including demands for a global carbon tax to support local initiatives and experiments. As we consider solutions and policies that will mitigate our energy predicament, we must adhere to the following guiding principals:

*   Reduce energy consumption

*   Reduce materials throughout

*   Comprehensively non-violent The platform has the following components:

0) USE MUCH LESS AND MAKE LESS MESS

Everything featured in Einstein's famous little equation (E=mc2) should be on our list for reduction. if we use less energy and mass as inputs, we'll produce less material outputs that nature has no use for, such as heavy metals, pcbs, co2, etc... ad infitum. Using less light is very important, since lights, though less energy intensive than say heaters, are left on so much longer that they are highly significant energy users. They also encourage us to work longer hours. We can and must work less, and with less oil around we won't be able to do as much work anyway, so we may as well get used to it. The best way to get used to anything is by planning for it. The alternative is invariably ugly and painful.

1) Rules on local ownership and local operation of food production

*   Much more urgent steps should be taken to relocalize food production. Yes, CSA is helpful, but much organic agriculture is still too dependent on oil and gas (tractors and drying for example), and also organic is becoming co-opted by agri-business. Local rules must be put in place which explicitly (if possible) or implicitly enforce local ownership and local operation. The easiest thing to do would be to do this by regulation. More subtle methods will be perverted by the corporations. Explicit rule making will certianly face great hostility from agri-business and every other multi-national - at some point these battles will have to come into the open.

*   Strongly encourage biointensive techniques of food production which build the soil, and consequently need much less water. Biointensive techniques also require lots of people, by definition. As the industrial economy decays, this will soon be seen as a good thing by more and more people.

2) Access to locally produced food It is vital that small food shops be reinvented or started from scratch, as well as the old-fashioned wholesaler and street markets. Otherwise it will remain virtually impossible for the new professional food grower to get their product to market. This will include deliberately creating:

*   European style street markets on regular days, or indeed everyday when things get going. This will mean closing streets to cars. This can be a beginning towards getting rid of all private cars completely. Copenhagen has done amazing work in this regard.

*   Small food shops to be encouraged in every possible way:

*   Implement tax breaks or total holidays for a long time to help them fight supermarkets (which should be driven to extinction with all speed and vigor)

*   Charge minimal or non-existent property rents for small shops

*   If one-story strip malls dominate the old high street or town center and if they cannot be quickly bulldozed, then explore whether housing can be placed on top of them (beware Egyptian experience - the job must be done with enough structural strength). Best to get rid of strip malls altogether, and build something with two or three stories of housing on top of the shops. It is vital that this looks as beautiful as possible, and that is designed to last a reasonable length of time. We just won't have the resources to keep rebuilding the kinds of wretched garbage that developers are throwing up now. This high quality building work, which should have a strong vernacular flavor, and if possible involve the development of a tradition of vernacular builder-designers, should try to avoid all the normal patterns of architect-developers. These people have helped wreak destruction on cities and communities across the planet. There may be some resistance to this notion. All this work will be very helpful for increasing employment. Local materials should be used, and systems of collecting discarded materials should be developed, so that such things can be re-used or re-fashioned into something useful. Until the wasteful age of petroleum, this was ordinary and natural practice. It must become so once again (see artisans below).

3) Transport

*   Urgently get public transport (publicly owned) into the village/town/city area, especially to feed the traditional high street and (if they existed) pre-petroleum main shopping areas. If such centers never existed, look at European models, and the American towns that were built before petroleum, and designed to foster some sense of community and identity. Almost all post war (1945) planning and design should strongly avoided, including of course, suburbia and all modern shopping malls, which will one day be torn down or simply abandoned. It would be better to dismantle them now, whilst we still have the energy. There are at least some things in them can be re-used, such as glass, metals and wood.

*   If remotely possible try to put in trolley buses or even better trams. This will be a huge bonus in the decades to come. But even rubber-wheeled buses are much better than nothing. Obviously they must not be natural-gas powered. If internal combustion engines are the only short-term option, then look at making the buses biodiesel compatible (though note that biodiesel is no panacea). Trolley buses and trams will require electricity, which must be produced locally, and they will require wire and rails. Both these use commodities which are already becoming much more expensive. It is possible in the future, that dismantled suburbia and malls may furnish some of the resources.

*   Strongly encourage car co-operatives or non-profits, or indeed, make them public car share operations. Interesting examples exist in Vancouver and San Francisco. The mitfarhgelegenheit system in Germany is very successful at coordinating ride sharing for ordinary private cars.

4) Create or re-create the pre-industrial revolution system of artisan production and reinstate selected light manufacturing capacity Deliberately develop an economy based on artisans producing as much as possible of local vital needs. This will require similar measures to helping small stores. Policymakers should think very seriously about metal and vessel makers, e.g. blacksmiths, potters. We must drastically reduce the amount of packaging that we use, especially plastic. We need to return to using permanent containers such as pots and baskets for holding and transporting things. Basket making is a special and very important art and craft, but it takes time to revive. Other vessel making, such as metal, clay and glass, takes a lot of energy - where is that energy going to come from? In the past it was from coal, charcoal and trees. Natural gas has become the source of choice for industrial process heat. Any tendency to use these will have to be vigorously resisted. Public research (which means publicly funded and publicly accessible) will need to be done now, to start experimenting with what works for a given locale. For instance, solar appears to be quite impractical for firing the high-temperature kilns needed for many types of glaze. Biogas may be a substitute but there will definitely be problems. How are we going to make glass? There is plenty of glass to be recycled, but it is a notoriously energy intensive. However, life without glass will definitely be difficult, if not downright brutish.

5) Energy harvesting machines In general, encourage a highly diverse, localized energy harvesting web, with a strong emphasis on storage to avoid the inevitable problem of intermittency which attends all solar harvesting, be it direct (photovoltaic) or indirect (wind). Urgent attention must be given to short-term storage (overnight) and long term seasonal storage to balance the lower insolation of winter. Therefore

*   Strongly encourage public research and development of energy harvesting and storage machines. The U.S. was once the leader in solar cell research. Reagan destroyed all that. However, instead of encouraging the usual brutal and empire-oriented notions of being the 'leader,' relocalization encourages being very good (rather than best, which after all may still be terrible) and some-sufficiency, since total self-sufficiency is not a practical short-term goal, and may be demoralizing. Also, encouraging regional co-operation and sharing will be vital.

*   Not only will be engaging in R&D and production of small-scale energy machines be good for employment at every level of mental and physical ability and engagement, it is the ONLY way to achieve energy security. Universities must somehow be pried away from their terrible path of corporate capture, and return to or start doing research in the public interest, instead of corporate research, almost all of which, being bound for the military or the mall, is designed either to destroy the planet or people or both, as fast as possible. Given the utterly craven state of universities this will be perhaps the most staggeringly difficult undertaking of all. Given that de-corporatizing universities may be impossible, municipalities should urgently investigate setting up small-scale public laboratories.

*   Rebuild a local wind turbine industry. Denmark is the clearest example. Note however that they are having difficulties as they reach towards 20% of electrical capacity.

*   Encourage research and production of small-scale biogas digesters. India, Turkey, and some places in Europe have decades of experience. The large biogas digesters are designed for industrial hog and cattle farms. This should be strongly discouraged. Ideally, such factory farms should be driven from the face of the planet with all speed.

6) Ground source heating or geo-exchange space heating Businesses should be vigorously encouraged in this area, and great help given to replace natural gas home and office heating with geo-exchange. However, at the same time, care must be taken to make sure that there is enough renewable energy & storage, to run the heat-exchange pumps, otherwise this will exacerbate the problems with electricity generation.

7) Local energy centers & local energy banks Look at the possibility of setting up local energy centers which will help disseminate and coordinate information about all of the above, and also, in combination with local energy banks, help administer loans and other services devoted reducing energy usage and waste in houses and offices. This includes the retrofitting of geo-exchange mentioned above, and also the fitting of insulation. Local energy centers and local energy banks will be a key part also, in helping start car co-ops, develop bio-diesel co-ops, and install co-generation, biogas digesters, and as soon as possible, introduced municipally-backed local currency experiments, most likely tied the public generation of renewable electricity.

...

Powerdown If the US continues with current policies, the next decades will be marked by war, economic collapse, and environmental catastrophe. Resource depletion and population pressures are about to catch up with us, and no one is prepared. The political élites, especially in the US, are incapable of dealing with the situation, and have in mind a punishing game of "Last One Standing." The alternative is "Powerdown," a strategy that will require tremendous effort and economic sacrifice in order to reduce per-capita resource usage in wealthy countries, develop alternative energy sources, distribute resources more equitably, and reduce the human population humanely but systematically over time. While civil society organizations push for a mild version of this, the vast majority of the world's people are in the dark, not understanding the challenges ahead, nor the options realistically available. Powerdown speaks frankly to these dilemmas. Avoiding cynicism and despair, it begins with an overview of the likely impacts of oil and natural gas depletion and then outlines four options for industrial societies during the next decades:

*   Last One Standing: the path of competition for remaining resources;

*   Powerdown: the path of cooperation, conservation, and sharing;

*   Waiting for a Magic Elixir: wishful thinking, false hopes, and denial;

*   Building Lifeboats: the path of community solidarity and preservation. Finally, the book explores how three important groups within global society - the power élites, the opposition to the élites (the antiwar and anti-globalization movements, et al: the "Other Superpower"), and ordinary people - are likely to respond to these four options. Timely, accessible and eloquent, Powerdown is crucial reading for our times.

About the Author

Richard Heinberg, from Santa Rosa, CA, has been writing about energy resources issues and the dynamics of cultural change for many years. A member of the core faculty at New College of California, he is an award-winning author of three previous books. His Museletter was nominated for its "Best Alternative Newsletter" award by Utne Reader in 1993. http://www.postcarbon.org/subpage.php?page=resources&sub=other